DAILY FOREX REPORT FROM RESEARCH VIA 7/NOV/2014

MARKET HEADLINES

• Rupee forward contracts at six-month low on hopes of rate cut

The 12-month forward premium for the dollar was trading 450 points above the spot rate.It had fallen sharply in recent sessions to levels last seen in May. Traders said premium fell on hopes of an early rate cut by RBI. Rate cuts were seen boosting economic growth at a time of easing inflation.

Short sellers also built positions in NDFs on bets that the spot rupee will remain stable, traders add.

• Rupee gains 6 paise against dollar in early trade

The rupee strengthened by six paise to 61.34 against the US dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange on selling of the US currency by exporters and banks amidst sustained capital inflows.The rupee settled four paise down at 61.40 against the dollar on Monday. Forex market remained closed yesterday on account of "Muharram".Traders said besides selling of the American currency by exporters and banks, continued foreign fund inflows and a higher opening in the domestic equity market, helped the local currency to strengthen but the dollar's gain against other currencies overseas, capped the rupee's rise. Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE Sensex soared by 111.45 points, or 0.40 per cent, to 27,971.83 in early trade today.

• Rupee depreciates four paise vs US dollar to end at 61.40
  
  account of "Muharram".Traders said besides selling of the American currency by The Indian rupee today depreciated by four paise to close at 61.40 against the Greenback on moderate dollar demand from importers, amid some hesitancy in equities. A better dollar overseas also weighed on the rupee while sustained capital inflows restricted the rupee fall. At the Interbank Foreign Exchange ( Forex) market, the rupee commenced lower at 61.50 a dollar from its previous close of 61.36. It moved in a range of 61.3750 and 61.5550 before concluding at 61.40, a fall of 4 paise or 0.07 percent. The Indian benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, after logging its all-time peak, closed down by a mere over 5 points. FPIs/FIIs bought shares worth $310.50 million last weekend as per Sebi data. On Monday, they bought a net Rs 1,413.34 crore. The dollar index was trading up by 0.03 per cent against its major global rivals. Pramit Brahmbhatt, Veracity Group CEO, said: "Rupee traded range-bound and ended almost flat near previous close. It is expected to appreciate in coming days tracking gains in local equities. The trading range for the spot rupee is expected to be within 61.00 to 61.80." 
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RESEARCH VIA DAILY FOREX REPORT 5/NOV/2014

• Rupee falls 15 paise against dollar in early trade
  The rupee declined by 15 paise to 61.51 in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange on fresh dollar demand from banks and importers amidst strengthening of the American currency overseas. Forex dealers said besides the dollar gaining against other currencies in the global markets, increased demand for the American unit from importers weighed on the rupee but surging domestic equity markets, capped the fall. The rupee gained nine paise to close at 61.36 against the dollar in the previous session on Friday. Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE Sensex opened higher by 103.99 points, or 0.37 per cent, to reach a new lifetime high of 27,969.82 in early trade today.
• US dollar trades near seven-year high against yen

The US dollar traded near a seven-year high against the yen Monday after Japan's surprise decision last week to widen its stimulus and speculation that US interest rates could be hiked sooner than later. The greenback bought $112.74 -its highest since December 2007 -- in Singapore late-morning trade, compared with $112.35 yen in New York late Friday. The euro was at $1.2476 against $1.2525, while it also bought 140.68 yen compared with 140.71 yen. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday. Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) said "the dominant influence on markets" was the Bank of Japan's surprise announcement on Friday that it would expand its already vast asset-purchasing scheme in a bid to kickstart the economy.

Policymakers at Japan's central bank said they would add up to 20 trillion yen to the scheme, bringing it to 80 trillion yen annually. The decision follows a string of poor data that has fanned fears the world's number three economy, which contracted in April-June, may contract in the following three months, technically putting it in recession. In the United States, UOB said dealers are focused on US jobs data that will be released on Friday.

"The US jobs data could swing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future course of interest rate actions," the Singapore lender said. The Fed's optimistic comments on the state of the jobs market last week were seen as more hawkish than in the past, fuelling speculation of a possible earlier rate hike. The US central bank said in a policy statement last week it would keep near-zero interest rates for "a considerable time" after the end of the quantitative easing programme, sticking to its timetable of an increase well into 2015. UOB said the US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.9 percent, while the non-farm payrolls data will likely show an addition of 215,000 jobs in October, compared with 236,000 jobs in September.

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DAILY GOLD UPDATES FROM RESEARCH VIA 4/NOV/2014

Gold

Gold futures fell by 0.41 per cent to Rs 26,029 per 10 grams today as participants indulged in reducing exposures, largely in tandem with global trend.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in December, fell by Rs 106, or 0.41 per cent, to trade at Rs 26,029 per 10 grams in a turnover of 862 lots.

Similarly, the metal for delivery in February next year shed Rs 114, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 26,210 per 10 grams in 23 lots.

Globally, gold lost over 1.00 per cent to USD 1,161.35 an ounce, the lowest level since July 2010 in Singapore.

Analysts said a weakening trend overseas after the US Federal Reserve ended asset purchases, weighed on gold prices in futures trade.

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT FROM RESEARCH VIA 3/OCT/2014

GOLD

Gold futures fell in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators exited positions in the precious metal tracking a weak trend in the overseas market as faster than expected US economic growth last quarter vindicated the US Federal Reserve’s decision to end bond buying while dampening safe haven demand for the bullion, and denting bullion’s appeal as an inflation hedge. The US economy grew by an annualized 3.5 per cent in the July-September 2014 quarter, beating estimates of a 3 per cent gain. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange traded product fell to a six year low, signaling weak investment demand for the precious metal. Gold futures for December 2014 contract, at MCX, is trading at Rs. 26,345 per 10 grams, down by 0.97 per cent, after opening at Rs. 26,563, against the previous closing price of Rs 26,603. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 26,335. (At 11:36 AM).

SILVER

Silver prices hit a four-year low on Friday morning following losses in the world market. At 0611 GMT, the actively traded December contract on India's Multi Commodity Exchange was down 1.83 per cent at Rs 35,903 per kilogram, after falling to Rs 35,866 earlier in the day, the lowest level since October 29, 2010. In the overseas market, silver tumbled to its lowest since early 2010, as strong US economic data and fears of an early rate hike curbed the metal's appeal.

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DAILY FOREX REPORT FROM RESEARCH VIA 3/NOV/2014

MARKET HEADLINES 

• Rupee gains 8 paise against dollar on foreign capital inflows
  The Snapping its four-day falling streak, the rupee rose by eight paise to 61.37 against the US dollar in early trade today on sustained foreign capital inflows amidst a higher opening in the domestic equity market. Increased selling of the American currency by banks and exporters amid sustained foreign capital inflows following a slew of reforms announced by the government supported the rupee but the dollar's firmness against other currencies overseas capped the gains, dealers said. Besides, a strong rally in domestic equity market in opening trade helped the rupee, they added. The rupee depreciated by 10 paise to close at two-week low of 61.45 against the Greenback in yesterday's trade after the US Federal Reserve kept in place its plans to maintain record low interest rate for some more time. The rupee depreciated by 10 paise to close at two-week low of 61.45 against the Greenback in yesterday's trade after the US Federal Reserve kept in place its plans to maintain record low interest rate for some more time.

Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE Sensex rose 147.26 points, or 0.53 per cent, to hit new lifetime high of 27,493.59 in opening trade.

• China's yuan rises on corporate dollar sales, set to rise 0.5 per cent in October

China's yuan edged higher against the dollar on Friday, buoyed by strong corporate dollar sales, traders said, and it is set to show a gain of 0.5 per cent in October, the fifth straight month of mild appreciation.

"Many companies are selling dollars this morning, continuing a recent trend," said a trader at an Asian bank in Shanghai, adding that the corporate dollar sales might indicate the market is betting on strong exports again in October. Spot yuan stood at 6.1103 per dollar by midday, 0.09 per cent firmer than Thursday's close. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) fixed its midpoint at 6.1461, practically unchanged from Thursday's fix. October trade data is due on November 8. A run of higher export figures has helped the Chinese currency rise more than 2 per cent since May. 

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DAILY MCX REPORT FROM RESEARCH VIA 31/OCT/2014

GOLD

Gold futures tumbled in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and speculators exited positions in the precious metal tracking a weak trend in the overseas market after the US Fed ended monthly bond purchases while investment demand tumbled after holdings in the largest exchange traded product (ETP) fell to the lowest level in six years.

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed ETP, shrank to the lowest level since October 2008 to 742.40 metric tons on Wednesday.

Gold futures for December 2014 contract, at MCX, is trading at Rs. 26,765 per 10 grams, down by 1.16 per cent, after opening at Rs. 26,990, against the previous closing price of Rs 27,079. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 26,761. (At 11:34 AM).

COPPER
 
Copper futures fell in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and speculators exited positions in the industrial metal tracking a weaker trend in the overseas market as the Fed’s decision to end QE boosted the dollar, curbing the demand for the base metal as an alternative asset.

Stronger greenback makes copper expensive for those holding other currencies, thus dimming demand.

Investors will be keeping an eye on planned mine strikes in Indonesia and Peru which may signal tighter copper supplies.

At the MCX, copper futures for November 2014 contract is trading at Rs. 417.85 per 1 kg, down by 0.89 per cent, after opening at Rs. 420.70, against the previous closing price of Rs. 421.60. It touched an intra-day low of Rs. 417.75. (At 11:38 AM).

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DAILY FOREX MARKET REPORT AND ANALYSIS 30/OCT/2014

MARKET HEADLINES

• Rupee up 7 paise against dollar in early trade

The rupee strengthened by seven paise to 61.25 against the dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange on increased selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Besides, the dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas as investors await news from the US Federal Reserve about interest rate plans for the world's largest economy and a higher opening in the domestic equity market supported the rupee, forex dealers said. The rupee had slipped by two paise to close at 61.32 against the US dollar in yesterday's trade due to some demand for the American unit in an overall lacklustre trade. Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE Sensex regained the 27,000-mark by surging 150.26 points, or 0.56 per cent, to 27,031.08 in early trade today.

• Dollar struggles as soft data push yields lower, Fed awaited

The US dollar nursed modest losses on Tuesday, having slipped overnight after soft economic data tempered risk appetite and pushed safe-haven US debt yields lower. Expectations of more dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, due to kick of its closely-watched two-day policy review later in the session, also weighed on the greenback. The greenback eased to 107.805 yen, retreating from Monday's near three-week peak of 108.38. It also ceded a bit of ground against the euro, which last traded at $1.2711 off Monday's low of $1.2665.

The dollar was lifted earlier on Monday after a closely-watched Ifo report showed German business sentiment in October hit its lowest level in almost two years. But support for the US currency faded after weaker-than-expected US housing data was released later in the session, pushing Treasury yields lower.

Data also showed US services sector activity slowed in October to a six-month low, while manufacturing output in Texas dipped, pointing to some moderation in economic growth early in the fourth quarter. he soft data reinforced expectations that the Fed will reassure markets that any interest rate hikes are a long way off even as it ends its massive bond-buying stimulus.

The Fed kicks off its policy review later on Tuesday and is all but certain to announce the completion of its quantitative easing program when it wraps up its two-day meeting. "Trade overnight had a very distinctive feeling of 'wait and see'," said Evan Lucas, market strategist at IG. "With the end of the asset purchase program a foregone conclusion, speculation is once again mounting about the movement of interest rates." But with US inflation weak, the European economy stumbling and the dollar on the rise, markets are keen to see if Fed officials will acknowledge risks to their expectations that the US recovery will continue to strengthen. 

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